Combines the wisdom of the crowd and Artificial Intelligence in order to generate accurate predictions about future events, efficiently distinguish between the “noise” and the valuable signals in real time.
We apply proprietary algorithms and methodology on predictions made by large groups of people to produce forecasts that have proven to be more accurate than those made by pundits.
The theory with the wisdom of the crowds is that idiosyncratic noise is associated with any one individual answer, therefore, by taking the average of multiple answers, the noise tends to cancel itself out. Forecasts are aggregated and modelled, in order to present a far more accurate forecast.
Most successful predictions are made by a concentrated group of skilled superforecasters1. Their personality traits, rather than any specialised knowledge, allow them to make predictions that exceed the accuracy of intelligence services, without access to any classified data.
1 Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Gardner & Tetlock)
In contrast to polling, which measures opinions, making predictions is more of a cognitive effort. Surveys are subjective, a forecast , on the other hand, is more objective, people have to think about who everyone else is going to vote for and assess the winning chances of each party.
In a survey, the opinion of each respondent has the same weight; each citizen’s response is equally important. In a crowd forecast, the forecast of those people who predicted well in the past receives a higher weight, while the forecast of those who predicted poorly in the past receives a lower weight.
Marketers add events to be predicted
Check forecasts results in real time
Forecasters predict the outcome of events
Gamification: compete with others, train & improve forecasts to get recognition
Good forecasters are rewarded
